简介：四川大学硕士学位论文灰色系统理论在瀑布沟水电站泄洪洞工程进度控制中的运用姓名范南春申请学位级别硕士专业水利工程指导教师谢新生吴高见20051001度，是工期预警的有效工具。4灰色预测GM1，1模型具有一定的适用范围，对原始数据有准光滑的要求。在原始数据变化跳跃太大，数据系列不光滑情况下，虽然可通过多次累加拟合处理，但精度会受到一定影响，有待于作进一步的研究。灰色系统理论在水电工程中的实际运用经验不多，本文通过在瀑布沟水电站泄洪洞开挖工程进度控制中的实际运用和研究表明，将灰色系统理论应用于水电工程项目进度偏差分析和进度偏差影响因素分析，可实现工程进度主动的动态控制，成果可推广应用到相应的水电工程项目进度控制中。关键词；泄洪洞工程进度控制灰色预测模型灰关联度分析法因果关系一排列国法

简介：河海大学博士学位论文灰理论在水库优化调度中的应用研究姓名马志鹏申请学位级别博士专业水利水电工程指导教师陈守伦20080301ABSTRAETALONG’】LRILLLTHEDEVELOPMENTOFSOCIETYANDECONOMYTHEROLEOFRESERVOIRSINFLOODCONTROLANDCONSERVATIONISMORTEANDMOREIMPORTANTIT’SANIMPORLANTTASKTOESTABLISHRESERVOIRFLOODCONTROLANDCONSERVATIONOPERATINGSYSTEMINRESERVOIRFLOODCONTROL，EOMAWATIONMANAGEMENTANDWATERLRESOLLLW嚣PROTECTIONTODEVELOPINGWATERLRE∞LLRCESBYUSINGOFPROJECTANDNONPROJECTME锄GLLLEHLTHEOPTIMALMODELFORHYDROPOWCRSTATIOILTHERLMOFFIILTHEFUTUREISTOOCOMPLEXTODESERIPTACCURATELYITISGENERALLYDESCRIBEDINTODETERMINISTICANDTHESTOCHASTICPATTERNALONGWITIITHEACETTRAEYETLRORINCREASINGOFTHEFORECASTMETHODRLTLIIOFFFORECASTPRECISIONCOMPAREDTOBEFOREHAVERAISEDGREATLYHOWTOFULLYUSINGTHEFORECASTVAIUEHASBECOMEANEWQUESTIONALLLEWMODELISBUIITBYCOMBINEDTHEDYNAMICPROGRAMMINGMETHODWITLLTHEGREYSYSTEMTHEORYTOSOLVETHEGREYNUMBEREOMPARISONPROBLEMWITHTHEESTABLISHMENTTHEPOSSIBILITYDEGREEFORMULAL塔EDINTHEINTERVALNUMBERSPARTIEULARLY’THEGREYDYAMIEPROGRAMMINGWILLBECOMEORDINARYDYNAMICPROGRAMMINGWHILERUNOFFFORECASTISACERTAINREALNUMBERBASEDONTHELLNODELTHEFORECASTSCHEDULINGMODELHASESTABLISHEDCONSIDERINGWITHTHERUNO行FORECASTFELLOWSTTNEEASINGLYTHROU吐TOSLRUETURER11NOFFFORECASTSGRADATIONFORMULA伍EPAPERHASANALYZEDTHEINFLUENCEBCTWEELLTHERUNOFFFORECASTA6CIITACYANDTHERESULTOFTHEGREYDYNAMICPROFAMMINGMETHODTHEFORECASTPRECISIONMOLEACETTRAEYTHESCHEDULINGPROCESSLINEMOIREELOSEDTOTHEIDEALPROCESSLINEINORD盯TOGUARANTEESTHERESERVOIRSEEUFITYANDTOSATISFYVARIOUSREQUESTSTOTHERESEL“VOIRAMULTIPURPOSECOMPREHENSIVEEVALUATIONMODELFORRESERVOIRSCHEDULINGISPRESENTEDINTHEMODELALITHEINDICATORS蛳QUANTIFIEDUNIFORMLYANDTHESTOCHASTICWEIGHTASSIGNMENTMETHODISUSEDTODETERMINETHEVALUCOFWEIGHTTHENCOMBINEDWJTHMOTITECARLOSIMULATIONITCALLANALYZETHEEFFECTSOFCHANGESOFWEIGHTSONEVALUATIONRESULTSTOENHANCETHEAPPLICABILITYOFTHEMETHODINTHERESERVOIRSFLOODCONTROL，MULTIOBJECTIVECASCADERESERVOIRSHASBEENDEVELOPEDOPERATIONALTERNATIVEISCHOSENASDEEISIOILVARIABLEVECTORANDOUTFLOWPROCESSASSTATEONETHEOPTIMALOPERATIONDECISIONSARCOBTAINEDBYGREYRELATIONALDEEISIONFINALLYTHERATIONALITYANDEFFECTIVELYOFTHEMODELISILLUSTRATEDBVACASEOFFLOODOPERATIONFORWUIANGDRAINAGEALREAATTHEENDOFTHISDISSERTATIONCONCLUSIONSANDRESEARCHTENDENCYINTHEFIELDOFCASCADERESERVOIRSISSUMMARIZEDBRIEFLYKEYWORDSRESERVOIROPERATION；GREYDYNAMICPROGRAMMING；POSSIBILITYDEGREE；GREYRELATIONALGRADE；STOCHASTICWEIGHTASSIGNMENTMETHOD；MONTECARLOSIREULATIONⅡ

简介：东南大学硕士学位论文基于复杂性理论的水资源系统演化方向研究姓名陈莹申请学位级别硕士专业系统工程指导教师陈森发20080110STUDYONTHEEVOLUTIONDIRECTIONOFWATERRESOURCESYSTEMBASEDONTHECOMPLEXITYTHEORYGRADUATECHENYINGSUPERVISORCHENSENFASOUTHEASTUNIVERSITYABSTRACTINTHEEIGHTIESOFTHE20THCENTURY“COMPLEXITY”CAUSEDTHEEXTENSIVECONCELTLASALLINDEPENDENTRESEARCHOBJECTANDSTARTEDAAEWRESEARCHFIELD一COMPLEXITYSCIENCEWITHTHEDEVELOPMENTOFSOCIETYANDECONOMYTHEOBJECTSINRESEARCHAREMOREANDMORECOMPLICATED，COMPLEXITYTHEORYANDRESEARCHMETHODPROVIDEDBENEFICIALT001WATERRESOURCESSYSTEMCOLGSUMESTOACOMPLEXSYSTEMINTHESPACESTRUCTUREANDTIMESTRUCTURETHISTHESISGAVESIMPLEINTRODUCTIONOFCOMPLEXITYTHEORYINCLUDINGSELFORGANIZATIONTHEORYANDCHAOTICTHEORYANDCOMPLEXSYSTEM，THEDISSIPATIVESTRUCTURETHEORYISAPPLIEDTOANALYZETHECHARACTERISTICOFWATERRESOURCESSYSTEM，WHICHDEMONSTRATETHEWATERRESOURCESSYSTEMISACOMPLICATEDHUGESYSTEMOFOPENINGANDACCORD埘MTHECONDITIONOFDISSIPATIVESTRUCTUREFINALLYTHISPAPERTAKESWATERRESOURCESYSTEMINJIANGSUPROVINCEASANEXAMPLEESTABLISHEDWATERRESOURCESEVOLUTIONMODELACCORDINGTOTHECOMPLEXITYTHEORYANALYZEDITSEVOLVINGCHARACTERISTICS；TAKEWATERRESOURCESYSLEMINNANJINGASANEXAMPLE，SETTINGUPMODELACCORDINGTOTHECHAOTICTHEORYANALYZEDITANDRESULTTHATITEXISTCHAOTICCHARACTERISTICSITWILLPROVIDETHEDECISIONMAKINGBASISFORJIANGSUPROVINCEINASPECTOFREASONABLEMAKINGUSEOFWATERRESOURCESANDCONSTRUCTINGHARMONIOUSSOCIETYKEYWORDSCOMPLEXITYSELFORGANIZATIONTHEORYDISSIPATIVESTRUCTURE，CHAOTICTHEORY，WATERRESOURCESYSTEMII

简介：华北水利水电学院硕士学位论文混凝土坝施工仿真技术研究与应用姓名范向军申请学位级别硕士专业水利水电工程指导教师聂相田20060601THESTUDYANDAPPLICAT10NOFCONCRETEDAMCONSTRUCTIONPROCESSSIMULATIONABSTL蝴THECONCRETEDAM，WHICHISAFFECTEDBYMANYFACTORSANDISACOMPLICATEDSYSTEM，NEEDALONGCONSTRUCTIONPERIODANDLARGEINVESTMENT，PLAYSADOMINANTROLEINTHEWATERRESOURCESANDHYDROPOWERCONSTRUCTIONACCORDINGTOTRADITIONALEXPERIENCEANDARTIFICIALMETHOD，THECONSTRUCTIONPLANANDMETHODUSEDTOBEAWORKTHATISINACCURATE，TEDIOUS，FUSSYANDLOWQUANTITATIVEAIONGWITHTHEDEVELODMENTOFCOMPUTERSIMULATIONAND3DVISUALIZATION，SYSTEMSIMUIATIONOFWATERRESOURCESANDHYDROPOWERCONSTRUCTIONGRADUALLYBECOMESAPOPULARTOPICWECANFUILYANDACCURATELYOPENOUTSYSTEMRULE，THROUGHSIMULATINGTHEPROCESSABOUTTHEPROJECTACTUALIZATIONAIMINGATCOMPLEXSYSTEM，ANDDISCOVERTHEPROBLEMSINTHEPROJECTEARLYITPROVIDESASCIENTIFIC，SIMPIEANDDIGITAIMETHODFORPROJECTDECISIONFOIIOWTHEFRONTOFTHATFIEID，WHATTHISPAPERSTUDIESISTHESIMUIATIONOFCONCRETEDAMCONSTRUCTION，MYWORKISASFOLLOWS1ANALYZEANDDISSCUSSTHEPRINCIPIEANDMETHODOFSIMUIATIONPUTFORWARDIDEASANDPOSSIBLESOLUTIONS2BUIIDUPTHESIMULATIONMODELOFCONCRETEDAMCONSTRUCTIONANDCONCRETETRANSPORTATIONWHICHACCORDINGTOSINGLESERVERANDMULTISERVEROFQUEUEINGTHEORYINTHEOPERATIONALRESEARCHANDEVENTADVANCESIMULATOR3ACCORDINGTOANALYSISOFFACTORSINCONSTRUCTION，BUIIDINGUPBPREURAINETWORKTOPREDICTTHENUTUBEROFFAINYDAYSDURINGTHECONSTRUCTION4INTRODUCEFUZZYINTEGRATEDJUDGINGMETHODINTOTHERESEARCHOFCONSTRUCTIONALTERNATIYES5WRITETHEPROGRAMWHICHISUSEALFORSIMUIATINGCONCRETEPOURINGANDTRANSPORTATIONMAKINGUSEOFVISUAIBASIC60ANDSIMULATIONINPHASE6COMBININGWITH3DTECHNIQUEOFGISREAIIZE3DDIGITALTERRAINMODELANDANALYZEIN3DMODELKEYWORDSCONCRETEDAMCONSTRUCTIONSYSTEMSIMULATION；QUEUEINGSYSTEMBPNEURAINETWORK；FUZZYINTEGRATEDEVALUATIONMETHODVISUAIIZATION

简介：城市堤防工程在社会发展中起着相当重要的作用而堤防岸坡失稳是堤防工程建设中常见的主要灾害之一传统的边坡稳定性分析存在着大量的主客观不确定性充分考虑由各种因素引起的不确定性是边坡稳定性研究的发展趋势该文首先简要介绍了目前土坡稳定计算中几种常用的简化极限平衡法的原理及适用性指出几种不确定性分析方法的不足之处将堤防岸坡系统视为一个灰色系统详细介绍了灰色系统理论的基本概念、理论与计算方法灰色系统理论在堤防岸坡稳定性研究中的应用刚刚起步该文首次引入灰色系统理论的关联分析方法分析影响岸坡稳定的因素对影响因素的作用程度做优劣排序以明确各因素的影响程度指导工程设计针对南宁市防洪堤岸坡的稳定性通过灰关联分析找出了失稳的主要原因提出了相应的治理方案基于工程类比和灰关联分析原理与方法该文提出了堤防工程的综合类比评价方法以南宁市防洪堤岸坡为实例对5个岸坡的稳定性做评价预测预测结果与实际相当符合通过灰色预测模型的选择对防洪堤岸坡的沉降变形观测资料建立GM11模型作时间沉降量的预报根据2001120019梧州市防洪堤4个测点的沉降变形观测资料对200110和2001¨发生的沉降量做预报误差非常小不到01％精度较高研究结果表明灰色系统理论在城市堤防工程中的应用是恰当而实用有效的具有良好的前景灰关联因素分析对指导防治措施有着实际的工程意义运用综合类比评价方法对岸坡稳定性作评价为对防洪堤稳定性作出快速诊断提供了一种新方法运用灰色建模作变形预报可以跟踪监控堤防的安全状态

简介：华中科技大学博士学位论文基于MOPSO和集对分析决策方法的流域梯级联合优化调度姓名杨俊杰申请学位级别博士专业系统分析与集成指导教师周建中20070201II属性决策模型，研究成果不仅丰富了集对分析的基础理论，而且为不确定多属性决策问题的解决提供了有力的工具。提出了基于AGMOPSO算法的梯级电站多目标调度模型及其求解方法，通过将梯级电站联合调度中各种约束条件映射到决策变量的可行域，从而使得复杂约束优化问题转换为无约束优化问题，提高了模型求解的收敛效率，使基于AGMOPSO算法的梯级电站多目标调度优化的工程应用成为可能。以三峡梯级电站调度问题为应用背景，得到了相应调度问题的非劣调度方案集，为梯级电站的多属性决策提供数量依据。在提出的广义集对分析多属性决策理论与方法的基础上，根据梯级水电系统的运行环境、运行时期以及决策层次的要求，实现对梯级电站多目标调度方案集的排序优选，并通过不确定演化因子对决策结果的敏感性分析，找出影响调度决策的关键因素，进而获得决策者最终满意的调度方案，为梯级电站多目标调度决策问题的解决提供了一条有效的新途径。关键词关键词梯级调度，多目标优化，MOPSO算法，集对分析，多属性决策

简介：天津大学硕士学位论文基于多AGENT的天津市水资源系统仿真优化研究姓名张克浩申请学位级别硕士专业水工结构工程指导教师王仁超20090501ABSTRACTWATERRESOURCEISTHEVITALNATURALRESOURCESTOHUMANBEINGSANDISALSOTHESTRATEGICECONOMICRESOURCESTOTHEDEVELOPMENTOFECONOMYANDSOCIETYWITHTHEFASTDEVELOPMENTOFSOCIETYANDECONOMYTHECONTRADICTIONBETWEENSUPPLYANDDEMANDOFWATERRESOURCESBECOMESSHARPERANDSPECIALLYINSOMECITIESOFTHENORTHWATERRESOURCESHAVEBECOMEONEOFTHEKEYFACTORSINSUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENTOFSOCIALECONOMYTIANJINISATYPICALCITYSHORTOFWATERRESOURCESANDTHESHORTAGEOFWATERRESOURCESHASINFLUENCEDTHEECONOMICDEVELOPMENTSERIOUSLYTHEREFORE，ITISOFGREATPRACTICALVALUETOCARRYOUTRESEARCHONOPTIMALALLOCATIONOFWATERRESOURCESINTIANJIN，OPTIMUMDISPOSITIONOFWATERRESOURCESISAVERYCOMPLEXSYSTEMENGINEERINGRELATEDTOTHESOCIETYTHEECONOMYTHEECOLOGYTHEENVIRONMENTANDMANYOTHERFACTORSACCORDINGTOTHECHARACTERSOFWATERRESOURCESINTIANJINTHISPAPERAPPLIESMULTIAGENTTHEORYTOSTUDYWATERRESOURCESSYSTEMINTIA坷INTHEMAINCONTENTSARE8SFOLLOWS1ONTHEBASISOFSUMMARIZINGANDANALYZINGTHETHEORIESANDTECHNIQUESOFOPTIMALALLOCATIONOFWATERRESOURCESATHOMEANDABROAD，ITSHOWEDTHEDEFICIENCYOFTHEMBRIEFLYINTRODUCEDTHEAPPLICATIONANDDEVELOPMENTOFMULTIAGENTTHEORYANDEXPATIATEDONTHENECESSITYOFGEEINGMULTIAGENTTHEORYINTOTHESTUDYOFOPTIMALALLOCATIONOFWATERRESOURCES2THEBASICTHEORIESOFTHEOPTIMALALLOCATIONOFWATERRESOURCESINCLUDINGCONNOTATIONBASICPRINCIPLESANDMODESARESYSTEMATICALLYEXPLAINED，ANDPROVIDEDTHEORETICALBASISFORTHEESTABLISHMENTOFTHEWATERRESOURCESMULTIAGENTSYSTEMINTIANJINMODEL3ITINTRODUCEDAGENTTHEORYINCLUDINGCONCEPTIONCHARACTERSANDSTRBCTBI℃BASEDOILTHIS，THEPAPEREXPATIATEDONTHECHARACTERS，STRUCTURECOLLABORATINGMECHANISMOFMULTIAGENTANDTHETHEORYMODELOFBDIAGENT4ONTHEBASISOFANALYZINGALLOCATINGACTUALITYOFWATERRESOURCESINTIANJIHITESTABLISHEDTHEMODELOFWATERRESOURCESMULTIAGENTSYSTEMINTIANJINWITHMULTIAGENTTHEORYPRESENTEDTHESTRUCTUREOFAMELIORATIVEBDIAGENTMODELANDSCENARIODRIVEMETHODANDMAKERESEARCHESONTHEACTIONMODEWILLLSCENARIODRIVEMETHOD

简介：华中科技大学硕士学位论文南水北调中线河北南段施工组织设计优化模型及系统研究姓名邬方申请学位级别硕士专业系统工程指导教师王红卫20050509IVABSTRACTMIDDLEROUTEOFSOUTHTONORTHWATERTRANSFERPROJECTWHICHISBEINGPROGRAMMEDANDBUILTINCHINAISAHUGESTRIDINGACROSSDRAINAGEBASINWATERTRANSFERPROJECTINORDERTOSOLVETHEPROBLEMTHATTHEPOCKETYWATERRESOURCESINOURCOUNTRY,OPTIMIZINGRESOURCECOLLOCATIONITSCHANNELISLONG,THEQUANTITYOFEARTHWORKANDCONCRETEWORKISTREMENDOUSANDITISRESTRICTEDBYMANYNATURALANDSOCIALFACTORSTHELAYOUTOFWORKINGESTABLISHMENTANDSUPPLYARRANGEMENTOFMATERIALAREHARDTODEALWITHINCONSTRUCTIONORGANIZATIONITSTARVESFORMODERNTECHNOLOGIESTODEPLOYANDDESIGNSCIENTIFICALLYINTHISWAYWECANEXPEDITETHEBUILDINGSPEEDOFTHEPROJECT,OPTIMIZETHEUSINGOFRESOURCERATIONALLY,ENHANCETHEDECISIONMAKINGLEVELOFCONSTRUCTIONORGANIZATIONBASEDONSYSTEMSENGINEERING,AIMINGATOPTIMIZINGRESOURCESARRANGEMENT,USINGMODELINGTECHNIQUEANDOPTIMIZATIONTHEORY,ACCORDINGTOTHEBASICINFORMATIONSOFCONSTRUCTIONORGANIZATIONOFMIDDLEROUTEPROJECT,WEESTABLISHMATHEMATICALMODELSOFTHREEPROBLEMSINCONSTRUCTIONORGANIZATIONDESIGNBALANCINGCUTFILLEARTHWORKDISPOSETHECONCRETEMIXMACHINESANDADMEASUREMENTOFMATERIALRESOURCESTHENUSINGTHERESOLVENTOFLINEARPROGRAMMINGANDMIX01PROGRAMMINGTOOBTAINTHEOPTIMUMSOLUTIONOFTHEMODELSCOMPAREDWITHTHESCHEMESINORIGINALFEASIBILITYRESEARCHREPORT,WEANALYSETHEOPTIMUMRESULTSANDITSSTATISTICOFTHETHREEMATHEMATICALMODELSDETAILEDLY,ANDEVALUATETHERATIONALITYANDFEASIBILITYOFTHERESULTSIMPERSONALLYTOSUPPLYDECISIONMAKINGFOUNDATIONTOTHEDECISIONMAKEROFTHEHYDRAULICENGINEERING,WEMUSTSETUPASUPPORTSYSTEMOFCONSTRUCTIONORGANIZATIONDESIGNTOOFFERFRIENDLYFUNCTIONINTERFACETOINPUTBASICDATASANDPARAMETERS,TRANSFERMATHEMATICSMODELSFORCALCULATING,DISPLAYTHEOPTIMUMRESULTSTHISPAPERPARTICULARIZETHEFOUCTIONS,CONFIGURATIONS,MODULESANDDATABASEDESIGN,THENCLARIFYTHEREALIZATIONOFTHESUPPORTSYSTEMTHEPRELIMINARYAPPLICATIONOFTHISSUPPORTSYSTEMSHOWSTHATITREALLYCANOPTIMIZECONSTRUCTIONORGANIZATIONDESIGN,REDUCETHEHYDRAULICENGINEERINGINVESTMENT,SUPPLYDECISIONMAKINGREFERENCEKEYWORDSSOUTHTONORTHWATERTRANSFERPROJECTCONSTRUCTIONORGANIZATIONDESIGNMATHEMATICALMODELSMODELSSOLUTIONSUPPORTSYSTEM

简介：江苏大学硕士学位论文沿江开发下的水资源的优化配置姓名黄苏海申请学位级别硕士专业系统工程指导教师田立新20050326江苏大学硕士学位论文ABSTRACTTHISPAPERUSESSYSTEMATICPROJECTFORWATERRESOURCESINDUSTRYECONOMICSSYSTEMACCORDINGTOWATERENVIRONMENTALCONDITIONSALONGYANGTZERIVERITAPPLIESNONLINEARDYNAMICSTHEORYINTHISSYSTEMANDBUILDSTHENONLINEARDYNAMICSMODELOFWATERRESOURCESSYSTEMWATERQUALITYMODEL、MODELOFECONOMICGROWTHANDWATERENVIRONMENTALDEGRADATIONANDLOGISTICMODELFORWATERDEMANDANDITUSESTHISMODELAPPLICATIONINWATERRESOURCESSYSTEMALONGYANGTZERIVENWATERENVIRONMENTALINDEXESAREANALYZEDINMETHODOFMULTIVARIEDTIMESERIALSITISFORECASTEDFORPOLLUTANTARNOUNTINJIANGSUPROVINCEANDWATERDEMANDAMOUNTINJIANGSUATTHESAMETIME，ITANALYSISTHEEXISTENTPROBLEMOFJIANGSUWATERRESOURCESSYSTEMACCORDINGTOFORECASTRESULTSUCHASECONOMICSFRAMEWORKALONGYANGTZERIVER，POLLUTANTRELEASEAMOUNT，BALANCEBETWEENWATERSUPPLYANDDEMANDTHERESEARCHERPROVIDESTRATEGICMEASUREOFWATERRESOURCESOFOPTIMALALLOTMENTALONGYANGTZERIVERFINALLYITAPPLIESCHAOTICTIMESERIESMODELINBEIJINWATERDEMANDAMOUNTKEYWORDWATERRESOURCES；WATERQUALITYMODEL；MODELOFECONOMICGROWTHANDENVIRONMENTALDEGRADATION；LOGISTICMODEL；CHAOTICTIMESERIES；OPTIMALALLOTMENTFORECAST

简介：分类号密级UDC单位代码10078华北水利水电大学硕士学位论文灰色预测决策模型及其在黄河冰凌灾害风险管理中的应用GREYPREDICTIONGREYDECISIONMODELITSAPPLICATIONINTHEYELLOWRIVERICEJAMDISASTERRISKMANAGEMENT研究生姓名李钰雯指导教师罗党专业名称应用数学所在学院数学与信息科学学院2014年10月独立完成与诚信声明本人郑重声明所提交的学位论文，是本人在指导教师的指导下，独立进行研究工作所取得的研究成果并撰写完成的。没有剽窃、抄袭等违反学术道德、学术规范的侵权行为。文中除已经标注引用的内容外，本学位论文中不包含其他人或集体已经发表或撰写过的研究成果，也不包含为获得华北水利水电大学或其它教育机构的学位或证书所使用过的材料。对本文的研究做出重要贡献的个人和集体，均已在文中作了明确的说明并表示了谢意。本人完全意识到本声明的法律后果由本人承担。学位论文作者签名保证人（导师）签名签字日期签字日期学位论文版权使用授权书本人完全了解华北水利水电大学有关保管、使用学位论文的规定。特授权华北水利水电大学可以将学位论文的全部或部分内容公开和编入有关数据库提供检索，并采用影印、缩印或扫描等复制手段复制、保存、汇编以供查阅和借阅。同意学校向国家有关部门或机构送交论文原件或复印件和电子文档。（涉密的学位论文在解密后应遵守此规定）学位论文作者签名导师签名签字日期签字日期

简介：⑧中国近代第一所大学FOUNDEDIN1895天毕大萼TIANJLNUNLVERSITY硕士学位论文●学科专业作者姓名指导教师天津大学研究生院2004年12月功辨J一臼移ABSTRACTCOMPAREDWITHTHATOFMIDDLEANDSMALLSCALEHYDROPOWERSTATIONVIBRATIONOFHYDROPOWERGENERATORUNITANDIT’SSUPPORTINGSTRUCTUREOFLARGESCALEHYDROPOWERSTATIONISMOREACUTEFORIT’SUNITCAPABILITYANDSTRUCTUREFORMSOMANYPROBLEMSFOLLOWINGTHEFREQUENTANDLARGEVIBRATIONDOINFLUENCESAFEANDECONOMICALOPERATIONOFHYDROPOWERSTATIONSOITISANIMPORTANTANDSIGNIFICANTTASKTOSTUDYVIBRATIONOFHYDROPOWERGENERATORUNITANDIT’SSUPPORTINGSTRUCTURETESEARCHLAWANDCHARACTEROFVIBRATIONBASEDONTHEORIGINALDATAOFINSITUTESTONLIJIAXIAHYDROPOWERSTATION，THISPAPERFROMTHEVIEWOFSYSTEMTHEORYDEALSWITLLVIBRATIONSIGNALOFHYDROPOWERGENERATORUNITASINPUTSIGNALOFSYSTEMCOMPOSEDWITHHYDROPOWERGENEMTORUNITANDIT’SSUPPORTINGSTRUCTUREONONEHANDANDVIBRATIONSIGNALOFTHESUPPORTINGSTRUCTUREASOUTPUTSIGNALOFTHESYSTEMONTHEOTHERHANDCONSEQUENTLYTHESISOANDMISOSTATESPACEEQUATIONSCHARACTERISINGDYNAMICALVIBRATIONOFTHESYSTEMAREOBTAINEDASRESULTSOFAPPLYINGSYSTEMIDENTIFICATIONTHEORYTOTHECONCERNINGSIGNALS，ANDAREUSEDTOANALYSEVIBRATIONOFTHESYSTEMANDTOPREDICTOUTPUTSIGNALS。THERESULTSSHOWTHATTHESYSTEMIDENTIFICATIONMODELSREFLECTDYNAMICALCHARACTEROFTHESYSTEMPROPERLYANDSOMEVALUABLECONCLUSIONANDGOODPREDICTIONSCALLBEOBTAINEDTHROUGHTHISMETHODITCANBECONCLUDEDFROMTHISPAPERTHATSYSTEMIDENTIFICATIONTHEORYASASHARPTOOLFORANALYZING“GRAYBOX”PROBLEM，ISSUITABLETOBEUSEDTOCONSTRUCTDYNAMICALMODELOFVIBRATIONOFHYDROPOWERSTATIONFORANALYZINGCHARACTEROFTHESYSTEMANDPREDICTINGOUTPUTSIGNALSOTHEMETHODANDCONCLUSIONSTHATTHISPAPERCONTAINSCALLFMDTHEIRWAYSINTOPRACTICALPROJECTANDRESEARCHFIELDSANDISWORTHYOFBEINGSTUDIEDANDPOPULARIZEDDEEPLYKEYWORDSHYDROPOWERSTATIONSYSTEMHYDROPOWERGENERATORUNITSUPPORTINGSTRUCTURESYSTEMIDENTIFICATIONDYNAMICALVIBRATION

简介：北京交通大学硕士学位论文缺水城镇水资源承载力的分析研究姓名张保丰申请学位级别硕士专业环境工程指导教师胡天军20090601J匕塞窑适太堂亟堂位途塞△垦曼卫坠鲤ABSTRACTABSTRACTWATERRESOURCESCARRYINGCAPACITYOFACOUNTRYORREGIONISTHECONTINUEDDEVELOPMENTOFAVARIETYOFNATURALRESOURCESANIMPORTANTPARTOFTHEBEARINGCAPACITYOFACOUNTRYORAREGIONTHESIZEOFANINTEGRATEDDEVELOPMENTANDITSDEVELOPMENTHASACRITICALINFLUENCEHOWEVERWITHTHESOCIALANDECONOMICDEVELOPMENT，MOREANDMORETHEAMOUNTOFWATERNEEDED；INCONTRASTASARESULTOFWATERRESOURCES，WATERPOLLUTIONINCREASE，RESULTINGINREDUCEDWATERRESOURCESBEIJINGASALARGESCALEGROWINGCITYINDUSTRYAGRICULTURE，COMMERCIAL，RESIDENTIALANDOTHERAREASOFGROWTHINWATERCONSUMPTIONFORTHECITYSWATERPLANNINGANDBUILDINGTHENEWPROBLEMSTHISREQUIRESUSTOBEIJINGTOMAKETIMELYANDFULLCAPACITYOFWATERRESOURCESPLANNING，ALLOCATIONOFREASONABLE，COMPREHENSIVEANDHARMONIOUSDEVELOPMENTSYSTEMDYNAMICSSYSTEMDYNAMICS，REFERREDTOASSDISFROMTHEMASSACHUSETTSINSTITUTEOFTECHNOLOGYPROFESSORFORRESTFOUNDEDIN1956ITISBASEDONFEEDBACKCONTROLTHEORYSIMULATIONTECHNOLOGYASAMEANSTOSTUDYTHECOMPLEXITYOFTHESOCIOECONOMICSYSTEMOFQUANTITATIVEMETHODSOFRESEARCHDEVOTEDTOTHEANALYSISOFCOMPLEXSYSTEMSSCIENCEITISNOWWIDELYUSEDINRESEARCH，ASWELLASSUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENTANDCAPACITYDEVELOPMENTANDUTILIZATIONOFWATERRESOURCES，THEWATERRESOURCESPLANNINGURBANWATERENVIRONMENTANDENVIRONMENTALECONOMICRESEARCHMEDIUMMULTIOBJECTIVEOPTIMIZATIONPROBLEMKNOWNASTHEDISCIPLINESORMULTIOBJECTIVEOPTIMIZATIONOFMULTIOBJECTIVEPLANNINGITISINMATHEMATICSABRANCHOFOPERATIONSRESEARCHISDEVELOPEDINRECENTYEARSANEWDISCIPLINE，ITISBOUNDTOSTUDYACERTAINNUMBEROFOBJECTIVEFUNCTIONUNDERTHECONDITIONSOFTHEPROBLEMOFEXTREMEVALUEMORETHANTHENUMBEROFGOALS嬲ARESULTOFAVECTORCANBEOBJECTIVE，THEREFORE，MULTIOBJECTIVEOPTIMIZATIONPROBLEM，SOMETIMESCALLEDTHEVECTOREXTREMUMPROBLEMBECAUSEMOSTREALWORLDOPTIMIZATIONPROBLEMSINVOLVEANUMBEROFOBJECTIVESSHOULDBETHEREFORE，SINCETHELASTCENTURYSINCETHE70’S，FORMULTIOBJECTIVEPLANNINGTHEORYINTHEINTERNATIONALCOMMUNITYHASAROUSEDAGREATDEALOFCONCERNANDATTENTIONINTHISPAPERTHEAPPLICATIONOFSYSTEMDYNAMICSANDMULTIOBJECTIVEOPTIMIZATIONPROBLEMANDSOONTHEBASISOFLITERATURETOREADTOBEIJING舔ANEXAMPLE，BEIJINGINRECENTYEARSTHROUGHTHEANALYSISOFTHEDATACARRYINGCAPACITYOFWATERRESOURCES，WATER

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简介：摘要基于灰信息的预测与决策模型及其应用研究摘要灰色系统理论是以少数据、贫信息的不确定问题为研究对象的系统理论。灰数是其基本研究单位，而现有的理论模型大多数是以白数为研究对象的，并不是真正意义的以灰数为基础建模的，并且现有的灰代数系统运算体系不够完善，怎样充分的利用灰数所包含的灰信息以及完善其运算体系，一直是国内外专家学者研究的重点。目前，直接以区间灰数为建模基础的预测与决策模型仍然是灰色系统领域研究的重点。针对现有的问题，本文的工作主要有以下方面（1）系统的总结了基于区间灰数的预测模型，灰关联分析、灰靶决策、灰色群决策等模型的研究成果。（2）根据区间灰数所包含的信息，定义了灰数的信息测度，并分析得出区间灰数信息可以由核和信息测度表达，进而给出区间灰数信息新的表达方式灰信息点。给出了灰信息点的加法、减法和数乘运算方法，定义了灰数清晰度以及灰信息点的距离与排序公式，灰信息点序列间的距离，同时也给出了灰信息点的标准化方法。基于灰信息点构造了灰信息点区间灰数关联度，讨论了其性质，并与已有的区间灰数关联度做了对比分析。（3）基于灰信息点构建了区间灰数预测模型；基于灰信息点灰靶构造了群决策模型。将以上预测与决策模型应用于黄河流域宁夏内蒙河段冰凌灾害风险管理预测与决策，用实例验证了其有效性和可行性。关键词区间灰数；预测模型；灰色关联；群决策；冰凌灾害